I saw Boyhood first, I think its a good movie, so its my first frontrunner. Then I saw Birdman, now I changed my choice as Birdman as the frontrunner for Best Picture. Its obvious. Birdman tell a story about a different side if an artist and entertainment industry, its like a hero story that brought us a level about a very different side of entertainment industry that we rarely see, and The Academy loves movies like this (at least this past 1o0 years).

You can see some examples, The Artist (2011), brought us to the end of Silent Area and the drama of the characters, the newest one is Argo (2012) brought us a hero story how Hollywood help CIA to rescue six Americans during a crisis in Iran.

We can see the obvious track from that line.

Birdman is good, but I thought Boyhood will win. Even though I like Julianne Moore, Rosamund Pike was awesome too.

In some ways, Boyhood has been the victim of its own success..